Electric vehicles sales update Q3 2018, Canada

November 6, 2018

Fast five EV sales facts:

1. Nearly 35,000 plug-in electric vehicles have been sold in Canada by the end of September, an increase of 158% compared to this time last year.
2. For Q3-2018, sales peaked at over 13,000 EVs, a 166% increase over Q3-2017.
3. At current rates, Canada will see more electric vehicles (EVs) sold across the country in 2018 than the previous three years, combined.
4. The electric portion of new passenger car sales has risen to 8.3% for all of Canada.
5. The Tesla Model 3 has retained top-spot as the most-sold EV in Q3-2018.

At current rates, Canada will see more electric vehicles (EVs) sold across the country in 2018 than the previous three years, combined. Electric vehicle sales topped out at 19,200 for 2017. The year before that it had reached 11,000. On average electric vehicle sales have increased by more than 66% a year for the previous five years. An impressive trend which could see a doubling of EV sales in Canada by the end of this year. Nearly 35,000 plug-in electric vehicles have been sold in Canada by the end of September, an increase of 158% compared to this time last year.

Year	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018 YTD
BEV	1,641	2,886	4,378	5,130	9,957	16,657
PHEV	1,613	2,470	2,694	5,893	9,279	17,700
TOTAL	3,254	5,356	7,072	11,023	19,236	34,357

The year-over-year sales trends speak for themselves. As each year passes, the electric vehicle market matures, more competitive EV models hit the market and drivers have taken notice. One prediction earlier in the year was that the market this year would crash immediately after several factors had combined to create a surge of EV sales in Canada. These factors included the rush to redeem a Government EV incentive in Ontario before it disappeared. The much-anticipated wave of Tesla Model 3 inventory into the country. As well as consumers feeling much more comfortable with EV technology and choosing to take the plunge. At least two of these factors were predicted by skeptics to be unnatural, therefore unsustainable growth for the industry. While sales did indeed see a huge surge which peaked in the month of June, the crash was nowhere to be found. By the end of the third-quarter, EV sales have made a quick month per month recovery. They now sit at what could be considered a normal level with nearly 5,500 EVs sold in September.

Canadian EV Sales in Q3-2018

An apple to apple comparison of third-quarter growth, 2018 to 2017 further illustrates the rate at which the market has grown. For Q3-2018, sales peaked at over 13,000 EVs. This is a 166% increase over Q3-2017 of nearly 5,000 EVs. Looking into that figure, we see that plug-in hybrid-electric model sales are growing more quickly than fully-electric vehicles. Compare 6,500 PHEV sales in the third quarter of this year, compared to 2,200 for the same time-period in 2017. And 6,700 fully-electric vehicles sold in the third quarter of this year, to 2,700 for the same time period last year.

	Q3-’17	Q3-’18
BEV	2,723	6,670	145%
PHEV	2,210	6,464	193%
All EV	4,933	13,134	166%

On a provincial level, Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec remain the top adopters of electric vehicles. For Q3-2018, Ontario saw 5,800 EV sales, a 209% increase over the quarter last year. Quebec added another 4,500 EV’s, a 131% increase in sales over the quarter last year. British Columbia added 2,400 EVs, and that represents a 151% increase over the quarter the year before. Nationally, the addition of over 13,000 new electric vehicles in the third-quarter of 2018 represents a 166% increase in year-over-year electric vehicle adoption, compared to the same time period in 2017.

 

	Q3-’17	Q3-’18	∆
British Columbia	950	2,389	151%
Ontario	1,881	5,808	209%
Quebec	1,945	4,500	131%
All EV	4,933	13,134	166%

 

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018 YTD
British Columbia	567	769	1,546	2,132	3,554	6,305
Ontario	1,092	1,736	2,049	3,400	7,706	15,307
Quebec	1,438	2,679	3,229	4,987	7,354	11,767
Nationally	3,254	5,356	7,072	11,023	19,236	34,357

There’s no doubt now that the electric vehicle market is gaining traction. Comparing EV sales to all new passenger car sales has put this increase into a new, and more impressive light. In general, passenger cars have become a smaller fraction of vehicle sales due to increases in SUVs, pickup trucks, and minivans. This compared to an exponential increase in electric vehicle adoption in recent years depicts a clear change in consumer preference. This trend, the EV portion of new passenger car sales, illustrated below puts EV sales growth on a hockey-stick curve.

The electric portion of new passenger car sales has risen to 8.3% for all of Canada. The average is led by Provinces; British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario. British Columbia, leading in proportionate EV adoption has risen to 15%. While Provinces, Quebec and Ontario have risen to 9.8% and 8.2%, respectively.

	Electric portion of New Passenger Car Sales
	Q3-2016	Q3-2017	Q3-2018
Canada	2.0%	2.8%	8.3%
Quebec	3.0%	3.7%	9.8%
Ontario	1.5%	2.5%	8.2%
British Columbia	3.1%	5.0%	15.4%

There has been some movement with regard to the most popular EV model sold in the third quarter. For the all-electric BEV’s the Tesla Model 3 has retained the top spot despite the total number of electric vehicles sold decreasing by 700 to 2,070 total. The Nissan Leaf has retained the second most popular BEV slot, sales have increased by 200 to 2,000. The Chevrolet bolt has also retained its third-place position with over 500 units in the third quarter. The big shift on the board has been both Tesla Model X and Model S moving to 4th and 5th place respectively. These positions were previously held by new model debuts of the KIA Soul and Hyundai Ioniq.

In the PHEV category, The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has climbed to first place position with nearly 2,00 units sold, 500 more than in the previous quarter. Second place now belongs to the Toyota Prius Prime which has had steady sales near 1,100 for this and the previous quarter. Third place has been claimed by the Ford Fusion which racked up nearly 1,000 sales for the quarter. Dropping from a long-held first position to fourth is the Chevrolet Volt, with sales of 750 units compared to over 1,600 in the previous quarter.

Common Q&A:
The numbers above are derived from multiple sets of input data. These are summarized below.

What is the source of the data?
IHS, formerly R.L. Polk & Company registration data.

Matthew Klippenstein’s Canadian EV sales:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dLFJwZVdvNLRpmZqPznlzz6PB9eHMe5b-bai_ddRsNg/edit#gid=25

Statistics Canada, new motor vehicle sales:
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=0790003&paSer=&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=37&tabMode=dataTable&csid=

Automaker Datasets
Some data is provided by automakers.

What does the registration data include?
Registration data includes new vehicle sales, and vehicles bought out of Province or Country.

Editor’s Note:
In cases where a new dataset is received that enables further accuracy, these posts will be updated to include that new data.